Law and Justice is the first party to win a parliamentary majority in the post-1989 elections. How do Poles evaluate their actions? Do they have a chance of success again next year? Especially for you, we have analyzed the surveys carried out by IBRIS since March 2013. See what the changes in the arrangement of political forces in Poland looked like!
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Law and Justice stronger than ever
As you can see in the graphic below, support for PiS remains more or less stable. Only twice in the analyzed period was support for the PO higher than for the current ruling party. This happened in March 2013 and in the period from September 2014 to May 2015. It is worth noting that only in one IBRIS study, Law and Justice was supported by less than 30% of respondents - 24% of responses were obtained in July 2015, which is practically on the eve of the elections. The latest survey from June 2018 shows that PiS may enjoy the support of 32,7% of voters.
The Civic Platform is sometimes better, sometimes worse
There are many indications that the PO's quotations began to improve since March 2017, when it reached the support of 29%. It was better only in the period from October 2014 to May 2015, when the quotations were above 30%. However, there is a clear dependency that since when. Modern was established, the stronger Ryszard Petru's party was, the weaker the results were recorded by the Civic Platform. There is no reason to be surprised by these trends, because, as the founder himself claimed, the establishment of this party was a response to dissatisfaction with the activities of the Civic Platform.
.Modern
It was supposed to be a breath of freshness on the Polish political scene. In the first poll, it gained over 8% support, and at the peak in December 2015 it was equal to PiS with ratings of 30,2%. A moment later, however, there was a "rebirth of PO" and since then .N has been systematically weakening. In April 2016, it had support of 17%, and in September 2016 it exceeded the threshold of 20%. This state of affairs lasted until December 2016, but from the moment of Ryszard Petru's famous "trip to Madeira", .N ratings began to drop dramatically. Already on January 05.01.2017, 13, support dropped to 10%, and in February it fell below XNUMX%. Currently, the polls do not bode well for this party, as it oscillates on the threshold of the electoral threshold. There are many indications that instead of hoping for a "new quality", .N voters received a "PO-bis", only much worse managed. Internal conflicts and the creation of a new concept by Ryszard Petru do not help either.
kukiz'15
The development of support for the movement created by Paweł Kukiz was very similar to that in the case of the modern one. They started with the support of 20% and it was shortly after the successful presidential election of the founder of Kukiz'15. In October 2015, however, it was already half as much, i.e. only 10%. One of the lowest rates, this movement was at 5,3% and it was done several times - most recently on May 25.05.2018, 15. There are many indications that the history of Kukiz'XNUMX and N will be similar. Both political options are faced with similar problems. Paweł Kukiz's movement also has internal problems, several of the most important politicians have changed their club colors (although Andurszkiewicz's transition to PiS). It is clear that such reshuffles do not inspire confidence among voters who prefer more stable groups.
Co dalej?
There is a lot of talk about creating a "common opposition". A simple mathematical operation shows that if the opposition parties joined forces, they would become as strong as PiS. If PO, SLD, PSL and .N decided to go under one banner, they could count on 46,6% support according to the latest IBRIS poll. Thus, it would be over 10% more than PiS would get, which could count on 32,7% support in the same survey. This year's local elections are a rehearsal for the parliamentary elections in 2015. In many cities, both PO and .N run a common candidate - for example in Warsaw. However, it is worth remembering that local government elections are governed by slightly different rules than elections to the Sejm and Senate. Voters are more inclined to vote for specific people, while their political affiliation remains in the background. If an agreement is not reached to run as the United Opposition in the 2019 elections, it is expected that PiS will rule for a second term. The only debatable issue will be whether they will still have a majority in the Sejm and with whom they would have to form a governing coalition.
