The unexpected increase in unemployment in July surprised both analysts and representatives of Norges Bank. In early August, experts expected unemployment to decline at the end of the month. Friday's statistics published by NAV confirmed these expectations. The decrease was higher than in the previous months, and the leading role was played by two districts - Rogaland (decrease in the number of unemployed by 27%) and Vest-Agder (decrease in the number of unemployed by 17%).
Surprising July
Before July, the number of unemployed fell by 500 to 1 people per month. According to NAV on August 000, 3 unemployed people arrived in June-July. Nevertheless, the situation was still better than in the corresponding period of 2. Experts from the DNB agency predicted that in August the number of unemployed would drop by approx. 900 people.
Not all forecasts were conservative
Apart from the DNB agency, most analysts predicted a decrease in the number of unemployed by approx. 3 people. Such forecasts were provided by, among others Norges Bank. According to its representatives, the July increase resulted, among others, from from the implementation of facilitated access registration of the unemployed. As a result, the statistics included people who decided to register with NAV only thanks to the facilitations. The office employees themselves were of a similar opinion.
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- Taking into account the changes introduced by the office, we estimate that the actual increase in unemployment in July was slight - says Sigrun Vågeng, director at NAV in an interview with E24.no.
The facts turned out to be better than the expectations of DNB
At 10:00 a.m. NAV posted a press release on its website about unemployment in August. It turned out to be true decrease in unemployment was higher than DNB's expectations, but lower than Norges Bank's forecasts. According to data collected by NAV, the number of unemployed people fell by 1 in August. This is also a result that exceeds the average monthly decline recorded in the first half of 300. Despite this, the number of unemployed people has not returned to the level from before July.
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According to Kjersti Haugland - chief economist at the DNB agency - all market factors indicate that the decline in unemployment will continue in the second half of 2018. This state of affairs will be influenced not only by the upcoming Christmas season, but above all by the upward trends of the Norwegian economy.
More vacancies
The information provided by NAV seems to confirm these assumptions. The office also published data showing that they report a greater demand for employees. In total, there are 28 new vacancies in NAV, of which 800 are related to work in construction, and 4 in the health service.
Unemployment in Norway 2018
At the end of August, the total number of registered unemployed was 79, which was 400 lower than in the corresponding period of 10. The unemployed constitute 200% of the total population and this indicator increased by 2017% compared to May 2,8. However, it is still lower than in August 0,1, when it was 2018%.
