"So far this season, Norway has had an unusually low flu rate, but from week 10 there is an increase," says FHI's Dr Trine Hessevik Paulsen.
At week 12, the flu virus was detected in 1179 people. The percentage of positive samples at week 12 was 11,4%.
As this percentage has exceeded 10%, the flu epidemic is considered to be ongoing. The most frequently detected virus is influenza A virus of the H3N2 subtype. This is a slightly altered version compared to the H3N2 viruses we had previously in Norway. Therefore, the population resistance to this variant is expected to be lower than to the previous variants.
Increase in hospital admissions
In parallel with the increase in flu virus detection, there has also been a significant increase in flu admissions in recent weeks. 12 flu admissions have been recorded so far in week 136 and this number is expected to increase in the coming days as the data updates.
Uncertainty about the extent of the epidemic in the future
The rise in flu incidence is remarkable this time of year. Usually, flu epidemics are in full swing at this time. Contrary to previous seasons, during the pandemic there was almost no flu. Therefore, the population's immunity to influenza is expected to be lower than normal. It is not certain when the flu epidemic will peak or how severe it will be. Nevertheless, a further increase in influenza virus activity is likely in the coming weeks.
Risk assessment with FHI
The National Institute of Public Health has prepared a risk assessment for the next period that looks at covid-19 and the entire flu situation, see Covid-19 Outbreak: Risk Assessments . According to the risk assessment, hospitals should be prepared for much more flu hospitalizations in April than in March. Municipalities should be prepared to deal with flu epidemics in nursing homes.
Flu vaccinations and antiviral drugs
Currently it is much fewer people vaccinated against flu than against Covid-19. There are also many risk groups who have not been vaccinated against influenza. This applies primarily to people under the age of 65, whose vaccination rate is below 40%, and especially to children with conditions that increase the risk of serious illness, where about 8% have been vaccinated. Among people over 65, about 64% have taken the vaccine. Estimates from Denmark and France show that the vaccine is having a moderate effect on infections among younger people under 45 against the virus we are currently seeing in Norway. The effect among older people appears to be small. Vaccines probably have a slightly better effect against serious disease.
Early antiviral flu treatment is appropriate for those at risk and for those who are seriously ill. Preventive treatment may be important in the event of an outbreak in nursing homes.
Source: National Institute of Public Health
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