It is likely before Christmas that the incidence and hospitalization of unvaccinated adults and the elderly at risk will increase. But there is uncertainty about further development. Both booster doses and staying at home in respiratory infections can help reduce hospitalizations.
Epidemic In Norway is currently intensifying himself with an effective reproductive rate possibly around 1,3 and a moderate increase in admissions from week to week.
- The risk of hospitalization it is many times higher for unvaccinated people than for fully vaccinated people in all age groups. Among people fully vaccinated under the age of 65 there is little risk of hospitalization. Unvaccinated people over 45 years of age are particularly exposed to hospitalization, says Emergency Manager and Branch Director at FHI, Line Vold.
High vaccination rates help to slow the spread of the epidemic
Load health service may be greatly aggravated by epidemics of other respiratory infections. Also due to sickness absence of medical staff, a smaller number of available substitutes from abroad and the accumulation of patients ready for discharge. High vaccination rates help to slow the spread of an epidemic, but it cannot stop an epidemic on its own. Refreshing doses for the elderly are now important to provide them with the best possible protection against serious illness throughout the winter.
New risk assessment from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health
The FHI believes that the government's strategy against the epidemic should be firm, but notes that dealing with municipalities is more complicated and that it is difficult to decide when to change measures and what measures to implement.
The most important measures now are for people with respiratory symptoms to stay home and get tested, unvaccinated people to be vaccinated and people over 65 to be offered a refreshing dose. Other measures may be necessary at local, regional or national level if the burden of disease or the burden on health care becomes significant, says department director Line Vold
Other measures may be necessary at local, regional or national level
The National Institute of Public Health estimates that the overall risk of a Covid-19 outbreak in Norway during the period November to December is medium to high. There will be an increase in cases and hospitalizations among unvaccinated adults and older adults at risk. One possible scenario is that it is wintertime speech peaks, with around 500 patients in Covid-19 hospitals.
This increase is likely to continue the biggest among unvaccinated children and adolescents, but may also occur among vaccinated adults. However, unvaccinated middle-aged people and vaccinated and unvaccinated older people may become so sick that they need to be hospitalized. Widespread immunity in the population will limit both the spread of infection and the severity of the disease. So, immunization and better adherence to prescriptions and regulations may slow the epidemic further.
Nursing homes and hospitals
- We are afraid that the most epidemic it can touch the weakest in nursing homes and hospitals. Most municipalities in the country will experience growth, says Line Vold.
We believe that extensive vaccination of the population is an important measure, including a refreshment dose where necessary to maintain protection against serious diseases. The seasonal effect upsets the balance. Therefore, it will be necessary to increase compliance means in municipalities, especially councils to isolate themselves when symptoms occur.
Consequences of growth. New risk assessment from FHI
In our opinion, growth in the range outlined above will have medium to large consequences at national level, both for the population and for the health service. There is a danger of increased pressure on family doctors, home services, nursing homes and hospitals. Municipalities need to deal with vaccination, communication with the public, local risk assessment and the possible implementation of new measures.
Modeling suggests it likely won't take long to rebalance and reduce the number of new hospitalizations. Refreshing doses for the elderly can make a big difference over time.
The overall risk of a Covid-19 outbreak in Norway in the period November-December is medium to high
There are a number of factors that influence an epidemic. The impact of behavioral changes and possible weakening of immunity (after vaccination and / or Covid-19) is unknown. There is therefore uncertainty about further development. We have only medium confidence for evaluation. Vigilance, good health preparation and preparedness in municipalities are essential to introduce new measures, if necessary.
Source: Norwegian Institute of Health Public
Read our next article: Norwegian schools earn money from their students
