New figures from the national account show that construction and oil and gas services contributed to Norway's GDP falling by 0,2 percentage points from January to February. In addition, activity in several service sectors declined, but industry increased.
– Movements in the economy from January to February are particularly small. The weak development of some sectors results in a decline, said the head of the national account section, Pål Sletten.
Mainland Norway's rotating GDP growth was 0,3% from September-November to December-February.
“Basic economic growth is showing signs of slowing down. The three-month rotational growth has been declining in recent months, Sletten added.
Due to the publication of data for February, some new statistical data were introduced to the previous months. Mainland Norway's GDP for January was changed from a decline of 0,2% to an increase of 0,1%.
“It's not unusual for the previous month's figures to undergo some adjustments. When movements in the economy are small, revisions can change the picture in individual months, as we see in January. This shows that you need to look at monthly data in context, rather than placing too much weight on a single month, Sletten said.
Also read: Base interest rate up 0,25 percentage point
In brief
According to the latest data, in February 2023 there was a decrease in GDP in housing services by 0,2%, while activity in trade in goods increased. Manufacturing and mining saw an overall increase in GDP of 0,1%, but activity fell by 1,1% in the manufacture of other goods. In public administration, GDP increased by 0,3%. Household consumption increased by 1,3%, but consumption excluding transport decreased by 0,8%. Exports fell by 0,2% and imports rose by 1,9%. Gross fixed capital formation fell by 1,6% in February.
Was it optimistic?
As Nettavisen writes, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that once price inflation is brought under control, central banks in advanced economies will cut interest rates again. Interest rates, deducted from price increases, must fall to the level they were before the corona pandemic that broke out three years ago.
If the IMF is right, this means the key interest rate in Norway will be around 1,50%, as we had in autumn 2019. Today the interest rate is 3%, but according to Norges Bank forecasts will increase to 3,50 percent before summer.
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Source: Norwegian Office Statistical
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