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New technologies help detect them in advance
Ksawery rushing, whirlwinds, powerful storms - more and more often this type of atmospheric phenomena appear in Poland. Only as a result of the August and October storms, 8 people were killed and nearly 100 were injured. Such phenomena are the result of a changing climate. New technologies that detect dangerous weather phenomena can help in the fight against nature. The so-called Nowcasting forecasts, i.e. very short forecasts updated every 15 minutes.
- Using new technology is what we call Nowcasting, i.e. a very short forecast, say up to a few hours, but one that will be updated every 15 minutes or half an hour to find the most accurate answer to what is happening in the atmosphere - explains in an interview with the news agency Newseria Innowacje Andrzej Mazur from the Department of Numerical Meteorological Forecasts at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management.
Companies report
According to the report by Research Nester "Global Weather Forecasting System Market Analysis & Opportunity Outlook 2021", the global market for forecasting systems will grow at an average rate of 2015% in 2021-7. annually to reach a value of USD 2,2 billion. This market is divided into: weather radars, weather satellite systems, weather stations and sonars. predictive weather are created on the basis of numerical models.
- Certain processes that take place in the atmosphere are parameterized, described by systems of equations. These systems of equations are simply numerically solved on our computing machines. It is numerical modeling in the field of basic weather parameters, i.e. temperature, wind, pressure, etc. - explains Andrzej Mazur.
The market of themselves weather prediction services are also growing. According to the Markets&Markets report, its value in 2016 was USD 1,1 billion, and by 2021 it is expected to increase to approximately USD 1,6 billion. with an average annual increase of 7,15%. Weather forecasting will continue to evolve in terms of increasing resolution.
- New technologies and new elements that can be included in the forecasts are, above all, increasing the resolution, both temporal and spatial. The point is that such quasi-point phenomena, such as tornadoes, torrential rains and other such phenomena - very intense and dangerous, and occurring in an area of up to several hundred meters, can be predicted with high accuracy - says Andrzej Mazur.
The Norwegian government is taking immediate action ...
In Poland, they are primarily a dangerous phenomenon strong winds, such as hurricanes. As a result of passing through Poland at the beginning of October this year. storm Ksawery, two people died and 39 were injured, including eight firefighters. State Spokesperson Fire Department reported that firefighters intervened almost 10 times. times due to strong winds. The result of the August storms is even more tragic. 6 people died and 54 people were injured, including 15 firefighters.
Dangerous weather phenomena are intensifying not only in Poland. According to a report prepared by the World Meteorological Organization, 2016 broke the record in 2015 and was the warmest in history. According to the authors of the report, the most important reason climate change the world is burning fossil fuels, which leads to global warming. The report confirms that the average temperature is rising by 0,1 - 0,2 degrees Celsius per decade. Climate change means that the weather can only be accurately predicted in short terms.
– The greater the accuracy and spatial resolution, the less we are able to determine it in the time horizon - if we can predict phenomena at a resolution of even several hundred meters, the time horizon is maximum three days. Forecasts longer than three days, especially on a national or even continental scale, are not very reliable and are not very popular among modelers due to their not very high quality - notes Andrzej Mazur.
An interesting use of new technologies in the fight against dangerous atmospheric phenomena is the Groomsh application. It's an internet bot that runs inside the Facebook Messenger app. It warns local communities about the possibility of severe storms, and also allows you to warn your friends.
Pawlowicz AS / Newseria.pl
