As we learn from the press release of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (FHI), in 2022 there was a significant increase in mortality in Norway, estimated at 11,5%. Compared to other countries, excess mortality in the Nordic region during the pandemic is low. Monitoring the total number of deaths and calculating excess deaths is important to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in the Norwegian population. In the report “Mortality in Norway during the coronavirus pandemic 2020-2022” (fhi.no), the Institute of Public Health calculates excess mortality for the years 2020, 2021 and 2022. This is done by comparing the observed mortality with the expected mortality during the pandemic years. The expected mortality rate is calculated based on models that take into account the development of mortality rates over the period 2010-2019, also taking into account changes in the size and age structure of the population. There are several ways to present and model excess deaths.
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Mortality as expected in 2020 and 2021
For the entire years 2020 and 2021, mortality is in line with expectations. However, in 2021, the death rate was lower than expected in the first half of the year and higher in the second half.
“This may be partly the result of the shift in deaths that was avoided during the implementation of strict protective measures in 2020 and 2021,” FHI director Camilla Stoltenberg said.
Excess mortality in 2022
In 2022, Norway saw a significant increase in excess deaths. According to FHI models, the excess mortality this year was 11,5% (prediction range 6,4% to 17%), which corresponds to 4 more deaths than expected.
COVID-19-related deaths account for a significant proportion of excess deaths. The increase in mortality in 2022 has resulted in a decline in life expectancy for both men and women, said FHI director Camilla Stoltenberg.
Norway and the Nordic region
“However, it is important to remember that the excess mortality in the Nordic region during the pandemic is small from an international perspective. The total excess mortality in Norway for the pandemic years is 5,2%, which is comparable to other Nordic countries, said FHI Director Camilla Stoltenberg.
The report also calculated excess mortality for Sweden, Denmark and Finland. While the excess mortality is relatively similar if we look at the period 2020-2022 as a whole, it occurred in these countries at different times. While Sweden had the highest excess mortality in 2020, Norway and Finland however had higher excess mortality than Sweden and Denmark in 2022.
It is still too early to say how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect the death rate Norway and countries Nordic in the future. As we read, the Institute of Public Health will continue research and monitor changes in mortality.
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Source: Norwegian Institute of Health Public
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