The improvement in the labor market in Norway continues

– The improvement in the labor market is faster than we could have imagined. There is also little indication that unemployment will remain at higher levels than in previous crises. At the same time, we see that certain imbalances may create challenges in the future labor market – says the director of labor and social welfare Hans Christian Holte.

With the continued easing of control measures infection, unemployment has fallen steadily over the past six months. From March, before the gradual reopening began, until October the number of completely unemployed people has decreased by 37 thousand, according to seasonally adjusted data from NAV.

NAV forecasts solid growth Norwegian economy over the next few years, which will translate into further improvement in the labor market. Increased consumption of services will be the most important contribution to the growth of the economy. Strong will also be taller Norwegian exports goods and services abroad.

On average, 64 thousand. completely unemployed next year

NAV estimates that this year there will be an average of 88. completely unemployed, to drop to 64 next year and to 2023 in 60. This corresponds registered unemployment rate of 3,3%.. percent in 2022 and 2023. This is a clear decline.

- Registered unemployment will, on average, be lower than before the pandemic both next year and in 2023. Putting it in perspective, we have had such low unemployment in 2 of the last 30 years, says Holte.

High job demand

Data on advertised positions from NAV show that the demand for labor increased dramatically over the last year and is currently at a very high level. So far in 2021, the number of positions advertised has increased by 27%. higher than in the same period in 2019

- We see that there are a lot of announcements, for example in the fields of health, nursing and care. There are also far more vacancies than before the pandemic in industries that were hit hard by infection control measures, such as tourism and transport. We are now seeing some industries reporting a large labor shortage, says Holte.

Errors and challenges on the labor market

The corona pandemic has led to a significant increase in long-term unemployment, and many have long been registered as job seekers in NAV. At the end of October, there were 51 completely unemployed and targeted jobseekers who had been registered as jobseekers for more than half a year. At the same time, 400 people had been looking for a job for over a year.

– Although the overall situation is positive, the coronavirus pandemic has created some imbalances in the labor market. Some occupational groups, such as tourism and transport, they still have very high unemployment, and many of them have been unemployed for a long time. Therefore, more people probably will need help with NAV to get back to work, Holte says.

Source: NAV

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