Disappearing jobs, more people moving to cities and an aging population will result in a rapid pace of change and a huge need for skilled labor in the coming years.
NAV 2023 global analysis
Here are some of the results from the global NAV 2023 analysis, which thoroughly analyzes the expected trends up to 2035.
– Among other things, it is clear that Norway needs much more hands to work. In the future, the wave of elderly people will only increase, and economic immigration from EEA countries will decrease. The demand for medical personnel and people with professional qualifications is already high and will be even greater, says Hans Christian Holte, Director of Employment and Social Welfare.
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“We need to prevent people being pushed out of working life and we need to let more people in
Green change and technological development will cause the disappearance of jobs and the creation of new ones. Therefore, it becomes important to complete your vocational education and prepare for further and further education throughout your career.
To meet the demand for labour, Holte believes that NAV, the education sector and employers need to work even more closely together.
“We need to prevent people being pushed out of working life and we need to let more people in. At NAV, we must do everything in our power to acquire a skilled workforce, but this requires a concerted effort. The education system needs to be more lifelong learning based, and employers need to give workers the training they need on the job, says Holte.
A vulnerable global economy
The previous global NAV analysis came in 2021. While many of the trends are the same in the new analysis, there are also differences:
– Russia's invasion of Ukraine has exposed the weaknesses of the world economy. The need for self-sufficiency in both electricity and other imported goods has become a priority in the EU. This could lead to more industrial jobs in Europe, possibly also in Norway, says Holte.
Immigration developments are also more uncertain than before, partly due to the risk of continuing high refugee flows from climate change, wars and conflicts.
“We also believe that increased labor immigration from non-European countries could become significant as a result of labor shortages and because aging and high economic growth in Eastern European EU countries make it difficult to attract labor migrants from these countries,” says Holte.
Risk of greater differences in income
There is great uncertainty about future developments in living conditions as they depend on economic growth, labor market developments, future regulation of social security benefits and immigration levels.
“If there are greater income disparities and low overall income growth, perhaps combined with continued price increases and high interest rates, it could lead to more people needing financial welfare and other social services from NAV,” Holte says. .
Technological change
Of course, technological developments also have implications for what the future will look like. Here, development went faster than expected, says Holte.
Technology is entering the creative professions
“We have seen a shift in artificial intelligence. The quality and usability of digitally generated materials has reached a new level. Technology is now entering creative, high-skill jobs that were considered low-risk of automation just a few years ago. Professionals such as graphic designers, journalists and musicians receive both new support tools and possible new competition.
He expects that artificial intelligence will also become an important tool for NAV. Not only when it comes to IT development, but also for supervisors and managers.
"I don't think we'll get to the point where AI alone makes decisions, but I'm sure we can take advantage of this technology." Of course, we have to comply with personal protection regulations, but I imagine that AI can contribute to providing good and tailored advice to both supervisors and managers on NAV matters, as well as those who need help from NAV.
It does not replace physical meetings
We believe that in the coming years, citizens will increasingly expect the public sector to offer more consistent services. Analytics of the environment also predicts that new, hybrid ways of meeting will emerge, in a mix of real and virtual reality. Holte does not believe that such meetings will make physical meetings in NAV redundant.
“The coronavirus pandemic has led to a surge in digital meetings, as it was impossible to meet face-to-face for a long time. Screen meeting works well in many cases, but many people need to meet a person when they are looking for a NAV. We are constantly working to develop good digital services, while at the same time we must provide excellent alternatives for those who need personal assistance.
It can provide new opportunities
Global NAV analyses apply to the whole of Norway, but are primarily intended to serve as a tool for NAV itself. Holte believes that the most important thing for NAV in the future will be to cope with major changes and attract manpower.
– We have shown that we can find new ways of working during the coronavirus pandemic and I believe that we will be able to prepare for the future. Our task is to provide people with what they deserve and to help people who need it in their work and activities. The huge workforce demand of the future also presents an excellent opportunity to include many of those who are currently outside the labor market.
You can find the global analysis at the bottom of the article Global NAV analysis 2023 – 2035 .
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Source: NAV
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